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XM市场研究 - 9小时前Neutral

Technical Analysis – Will WTI oil futures continue higher?

WTI oil futures bounce up but not meaningfullyTechnical risks favor the bulls; resistance at 73.00-74.00WTI oil futures jumped back to the 70 territory after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Tuesday, reminding investors that the tensions in the Middle East could escalate further before the situation improves.Despite the bullish correction, the price could not overcome the support-turned-into-resistance zone of 71.95 and the descending trendline from Ju
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XM市场研究 - 12小时前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bounces off short-term uptrend line

EURUSD's double top pattern continuesRSI tries to move upBut stochastic eases towards oversold areaEURUSD is resting near the short-term uptrend line around the 1.1070 support level after the aggressive selling interest from the 1.1200-1.1215 resistance region. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is heading south towards the oversold zone; h
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XM市场研究 - 15小时前Neutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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XM市场研究 - 16小时前Neutral

Gold moves within 2,625-2,673Technical oscillators look flatGold prices have been moving sideways since the end of September, with the mid-level 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,647. The price declined from the 2,673 resistance, but the broader outlook remains positive. The MACD and the RSI indicators are holding slightly above the zero a
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XM市场研究 - 16小时前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY outlook remains gloomy

USDJPY holds below key resistance levels as October’s session startsTechnical signals cannot warrant a bullish trend reversalUSDJPY had a lackluster beginning to October, with a neutral close around its 20-day EMA and previously a rejection near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023-2024 upleg at 144.50.Currently, the pair is attempting to reach the 144.50 territory again, but there may be more hurdles to overcome.
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XM市场研究 - 17小时前Bullish

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD slips near strong support of 1.3265

GBPUSD remains above 20-day SMAStochastic and RSI reflect latest downside move.GBPUSD is notably retreating from the two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3433, meeting the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3235. Furthermore, the pair is still hovering above the strong support of 1.3265, but the technical oscillators mirror the latest downside move.The stochastic oscillator is heading south from the overbought region with strong momentum, while the RSI is moving horizontally above the neutral thre
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks

ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecastsEmployment subindex erases the August improvementStocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollarThe ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck bel
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY's range-trading might end this week

USDJPY is in the green today as dollar shows signs of lifeMarket participants are preparing for a crucial weekMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stageUSDJPY is edging slightly higher today, after yesterday's sizeable green candle, as dollar bulls are showing signs of life following a rather bearish session on Friday. The snap elections called by the newly installed prime minister Ishiba and the suggestion by Fed Chairman Powell that the next rate cut could be to the tune of 25bps h
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Quick Brief – Eurozone CPI drops below 2%, cementing October cut as euro slips

Eurozone inflation falls below ECB’s 2% targetUnderlying inflation gauges also declineEuro tests $1.11 as October rate cut looks almost certainInflation in the euro area has hit the lowest since June 2021, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.2% in August to 1.8% y/y in September. The two core measures of CPI that exclude volatile items eased marginally to 2.7% y/y.The euro came under fresh selling pressure on the back of the data, but managed to find support at the $1.11 level as the fl
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar gets a boost from Fed’s Powell but will the move last?

Fed’s Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cutDollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reactionEurozone CPI could open the door to a stronger October rate cutYen suffering continues, late-October general election is calledPowell favours measured stepsWith the world closely following the developments in the Middle East and, more specifically the start of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, Fed Chairman Powell chipped in the discussion about the size of th
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD turns neutral amid double-top formation

EURUSD holds above 20-day SMA but bias turns neutralBulls still have a chance as field of support levels lies beneathBut double-top formation hard to ignoreEURUSD has retreated from last week’s 14-month high of 1.1213, erasing the short-term bullish bias. But the pair is so far managing to hold above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1108.The momentum indicators underscore the neutral picture in the near term as the RSI appears to be flatlining just above the 50 level, while the
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Quick Brief – German CPI eases further

Preliminary German CPI drops to 1.6% yoy changeThe October ECB rate cut is almost a done dealEuro/dollar in the green again today The German preliminary inflation report for September produced a downside surprise by printing at 1.6%, against expectations for a 1.7% figure, following the 1.9% yoy increase recorded in August. The respective German states’ prints led by the North-Rhine Westphalia region, announced earlier today, somewhat prepared the market for this weaker CPI print.Following Fr
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Bearish

Technical Analysis – US dollar index meets another 14-month low

US dollar index remains bearish below 20-day SMAStochastic and RSI in negative territoriesThe US dollar index dived to another fresh 14-month low of 99.84 on Friday, continuing to hold beneath the short-term 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The downside pressure is also confirmed by the technical oscillators. The stochastic is pointing down near the 20 level, while the RSI is decreasing beneath the neutral threshold of 50.In case of a daily close below the 99.84 support could open the door fo
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Bearish

Technical Analysis – US 500 calms down after hitting new record high

US 500 index climbed to new record highs last weekBut got rejected and has retreated a little sinceMACD and RSI look overboughtFollowing the bounce off the 5,385 support level, the US 500 (cash) index added more than 7%, reaching an all-time high of 5,772.52 last week. Technically, the index is sailing near overbought waters, according to the MACD oscillator.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

EURCHF is in the green today, a tad below its 50-day SMAThe prevailing downward trend is still firmly in placeMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage EURCHF is trading higher, above the September 26, 2022 low at 0.9403 but a tad below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The bearish trend from the May 27, 2024 peak remains in place and has yet to be challenged.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharplyEurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup lossesNFP report --> USDJPYThis week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – Are we getting closer to a gold correction?

Gold is trading sideways today, but close to recent highsVolatility drops as a key US data week startsMomentum indicators are less bullish at this junctureGold is trading sideways today, a tad below its recent all-time high of 2,685. With the dollar remaining on the back foot, the market is preparing for an action-packed week with Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure being the highlight of the US data calendar.
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XM市场研究 - 5天前Neutral

Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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