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评论与分析

XM市场研究 - 12小时前Neutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks

ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecastsEmployment subindex erases the August improvementStocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollarThe ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck bel
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Quick Brief – Eurozone CPI drops below 2%, cementing October cut as euro slips

Eurozone inflation falls below ECB’s 2% targetUnderlying inflation gauges also declineEuro tests $1.11 as October rate cut looks almost certainInflation in the euro area has hit the lowest since June 2021, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.2% in August to 1.8% y/y in September. The two core measures of CPI that exclude volatile items eased marginally to 2.7% y/y.The euro came under fresh selling pressure on the back of the data, but managed to find support at the $1.11 level as the fl
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar gets a boost from Fed’s Powell but will the move last?

Fed’s Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cutDollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reactionEurozone CPI could open the door to a stronger October rate cutYen suffering continues, late-October general election is calledPowell favours measured stepsWith the world closely following the developments in the Middle East and, more specifically the start of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, Fed Chairman Powell chipped in the discussion about the size of th
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Quick Brief – German CPI eases further

Preliminary German CPI drops to 1.6% yoy changeThe October ECB rate cut is almost a done dealEuro/dollar in the green again today The German preliminary inflation report for September produced a downside surprise by printing at 1.6%, against expectations for a 1.7% figure, following the 1.9% yoy increase recorded in August. The respective German states’ prints led by the North-Rhine Westphalia region, announced earlier today, somewhat prepared the market for this weaker CPI print.Following Fr
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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XM市场研究 - 5天前Neutral

Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Quick Brief – Oil bears take the driver’s seat

Oil tumbles as Saudi Arabia prepares to drop $100 price targetPBoC measures fail to provide supportMarket ignores US inventories and tensions in the Middle EastOil prices fell around 2.5% on Thursday due to easing concerns about supply disruptions in Libya after factions signed an official accord on appointing a central bank governor, thereby ending the dispute regarding their central bank and oil revenue.The tumble accelerated today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is ready
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Equities are on autopilot but cannot help the dollar

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cutDollar continues to suffer but euro’s strength is perplexingPositive impact of China’s measures gradually fadesGold and oil diverge despite Middle East developmentsIs the Fed preparing for another 50bps cut? The markets seem to have settled down after last week’s big events with equities rallying, the US dollar underperforming and gold climbing regardless of the newsflow.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – China’s stimulus blitz supports positive equities sentiment

Dollar tries to recover as Fedspeak favors further cuts China announces new measures, positive initial market reaction Aussie benefits from another hawkish RBA meeting Gold, oil and pound rallies continue   Debate for the next Fed cut intensifies US stocks remain in a positive mood as Fed speakers continue to advocate for further rate cuts, despite the fact that the US data confirm the strength of the US economy.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick Brief – US PMIs, Fed speak point to 25-bps cuts but markets not convinced

US business activity remains solid despite a slump across the Atlantic Fed officials don’t see need for another 50-bps reduction Dollar holds firm, but investors still expect 75-bps cut by year-end   The flash PMI estimates for the United States did not generate the same doom and gloom as the Eurozone readings did earlier in the day.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Quick Brief – German chancellor escapes political drama for now

Center-left SPD party prevents far-right win in regional election Eurozone’s flash PMIs press EURUSD below 1.1100   Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) escaped a defeat by a small margin of 1-2% against the far-right AfD during Sunday’s regional election in Brandenburg. The state has been led by SPD since Germany’s reunification in 1990 and is a hometown to the German chancellor, who has been suffering plummeting opinion polls and anxiety within his coali
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – Euro sinks on poor PMIs, dollar firms ahead of Fedspeak

Eurozone PMIs dip into contraction zone, euro takes a dive Stocks mixed as weak PMIs offset optimism about China stimulus Dollar edges up as after Waller comments; Powell and PCE inflation eyed next Euro tumbles as recession fears return Eurozone business activity unexpectedly contracted in September according to the flash PMI estimates for September, sparking fresh concerns about the health of the economy.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Markets digest Fed decision; BoE and BoJ stand pat

Dollar tumbles on bets of more aggressive Fed rate cuts BoE keeps rates steady, reiterating caution about future cuts BoJ stands pat, Ueda says more rate hikes are coming S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs Fed outcome allows risk-on trading The dollar tumbled against all but two of its major counterparts on Thursday, with the main gainers being the risk-linked currencies, the aussie and the kiwi.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Quick Brief – BoJ stands pat

BoJ holds rates steady but open to more rate hikes Yen benefits from upbeat policy statement The Bank of Japan unanimously held rates unchanged at today’s meeting, fully confirming market expectations. However, the statement on monetary policy kept the door open to further tightening by stating that the BoJ expects a gradual increase in underlying inflation with the medium- and long-term inflation expectations also seen rising.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Quick Brief – BoE keeps rates on hold; pound likes the news

BoE keeps rates stable at 5.0%; reduces gilt holdings as expected Policymakers remain worried about inflation risks GBPUSD jumps into the 1.3300 region  The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 5.0% as expected on Thursday by a majority of 8-1 versus 7-2 analysts predicted. Having kicked off its easing cycle with a normal 25bps rate cut back in August, the central bank judged that a gradual approach on the pace of rate reductions is more appropriate until inflat
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Quick Brief – Fed surprises with a 50bps rate cut

Fed announces a 50bps cut with more easing to come in 2024 Dollar suffers a bit; US equities finish Wednesday’s session in the red The Fed surprised the markets with an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps, despite still forecasting a relatively tight labour market. The accompanying statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference was relatively balanced and kept the door open to further easing down the line.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates into two quarter-point cuts at each of the remain
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