• First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharply
• Eurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200
• BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup losses

NFP report --> USDJPY

This week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization. Analysts predict around 144,000 new jobs, slightly above the previous figure of 142.000. This data will significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially amid discussions of more potential rate cuts. 

USDJPY has been falling sharply over the last couple of days, following a pullback from the 146.50 resistance level. The pair lost more than 3% and returned below the short-term downtrend line, with the first support coming from the 14-month low of 139.56. Even lower, the July 2023 trough at 137.20 may pause the declines. The RSI and the stochastic continue to trend southward.

Eurozone flash CPI --> EURUSD

The preliminary CPI data for September, scheduled for release on Tuesday, is expected to attract attention throughout the Eurozone. The headline CPI is predicted to tick lower at 1.9% from 2.2% previously. Although Lagarde and her associates did not provide clear indications of an October decrease, the unsatisfactory PMIs prompted market participants to heighten their expectations for such a measure. At the October 17 meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis point decrease is over 75%.

EURUSD is still beneath the double top formation around the 1.1200 round number, experiencing a new bullish spike towards a 14-month high of 1.1215 in the preceding week. The market is developing well above the short-term uptrend line, with the technical oscillators appearing a bit weaker than the previous days. More gains could lead the market until the next stop of 1.1275, registered back in July 2023.

BoJ Summary of Opinions --> GBPJPY

In Japan, the Bank of Japan publishes the Summary of Opinions from its recent decision, in which policymakers maintained interest rates while upgrading their evaluation of consumption owing to increasing salaries. Governor Ueda stated that they will continue to increase rates if the economy aligns with their projections; hence, investors may scrutinize the summary for indications regarding the probability of another rate hike before year-end. Tuesday's Asian session will see the release of Japan's August employment statistics, and Thursday's Tankan survey could also influence investors.

GBPJPY fell sharply from the two-month high of 195.95 on Friday, dropping beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). More losses may push traders towards the immediate 20-day SMA at 188.90 before testing the previous low of 183.70. If the market successfully rallies beyond Friday's peak, it might settle near the 199.40 barrier and the 200.00 round number.