2024 has been good to the S&P 500 already, but look for more
U.S. indexes rise: Nasdaq out front, up ~0.6%
Materials lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Financials weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index rises ~0.6%
Dollar down; bitcoin slips; gold up, crude rises >1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.75%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
2024 HAS BEEN GOOD TO THE S&P 500 ALREADY, BUT LOOK FOR MORE
With a little help from the Federal Reserve the S&P 500 has risen a lot this year, but Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets is arguing for more gains in 2025.
RBC's head of global equity strategy research wrote this week that even her group's most generous stress test for 2024 suggests that the S&P 500 is already trading a little above where it deserves to be at year-end 2024.
But citing "consensus views for strong EPS growth and more improvement in inflation, and interest rates" she says there are reasons to be optimistic for further S&P 500 upside in 2025.
Calvasina says she forecasts a trailing P/E for the index for Dec 2024 & Dec 2025 based on views of where PCE, 10-year yields, and Fed Funds are headed.
While not ready to set an official target for end of 2025, Calvasina writes that various stress tests RBC uses for valuation estimates point to 6,200 for the S&P 500 at the end of next year. This is with an EPS forecast of $268, "or ~6,500 using bottom-up consensus EPS of $283.50."
The strategist also nods to history. Since the 1990s, she writes, the S&P 500’s median 12-month gain after a first cut in a new Fed cycle has been 11%. This would take the index to ~6,200 by next fall, Calvasina said, using the close on Sept. 18 (Fed day) as the starting point.
Elsewhere in this week's research files, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA points out that "the S&P 500 notched its 39th all-time high of the year" on Sept. 19th.
This year the record came after recouping losses in the form of a 8.5% pullback from July 16 through August 5, which Stovall cites as the 63rd pullback (as in 5-9% declines) since WWII.
After such recoveries, "history says, but does not guarantee" that the S&P 500 could climb another 8.4% in the following 98 calendar days before slipping into another decline of 5% or more, he says. "While we think the S&P 500 could close 2024 around the 5,800 level, we don’t see it challenging the 6,200 level that quickly," Stovall added.
(Sinéad Carew)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
YIELD INCREASES NORMAL AFTER RATE CUT, MAY LAST SHORT-TERM - CLICK HERE
TUESDAY'S DATA: CONSUMER FUNK GIVES FED CUT SOME CRED - CLICK HERE
U.S. INDEXES OPEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER, LOSE SOME GROUND AFTER DATA - CLICK HERE
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD PERKS UP, AWAITS PCE - CLICK HERE
ANOTHER CUT TO LUXURY EARNING - CLICK HERE
MORE LOVE FOR US SMALL CAPS - CLICK HERE
CHINA POP FOR MINERS, LUXURY AND AUTOS - CLICK HERE
DAX FUTURES HIT RECORD HIGH - CLICK HERE
NO BAZOOKA, BUT CHINA'S LATEST STIMULUS IS A RELIEF - CLICK HERE
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
