It could be an interesting week for Sweden's crown
Sept 30 (Reuters) -It will be a light week on the data front, retail sales and PMI numbers, but the crown is on the offensive and the technical picture is providing some interest with key support levels in sight for EUR/SEK.
With fundamental drivers likely to be balanced through October, the crown may well play out a steady sideways bias versus the euro. However, the picture this week could be one of a bearish breakout for EUR/SEK and a continuation of the underlying bear trend, in place since July.
Key EUR/SEK support points present themselves at 11.2450, 11.1450 and 11.1320, a series of daily lows from March, June, and September. Below 11.1320 and the cross has little in the way of major support until the 11.00 low from December 2023.
EUR/SEK is holding within a down trend, with channel parameters currently at 11.0884-11.3395. However, there are also some bullish pointers emerging. An Oct. 3 11.4800-4825 Ichimoku cloud twist could attract. Fourteen-day negative momentum is also fading.
The Riksbank reduced rates last week and has pointed to further rate cuts at the November and December policy meetings. The crown will be open to dovish factoring but unless the Riksbank cuts by 50 basis points at one of those meetings, the downside for the SEK could be limited.
Overall, the advantage is with the crown and this week could prove pivotal for direction.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3BB3Bjm
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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