Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading
Oil breaks above $75 a barrel
Safe haven gold, Swiss franc, Treasuries firm
Upcoming U.S. election, jobs report add to uncertainty
Updates prices at 1135 GMT
By Amanda Cooper and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
LONDON/NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) -Iran's attack on Israel has rekindled the allure of safe havens and oil prices have surged, but with no clarity yet on how the Middle East situation will evolve, investors are treading tentatively.
Their key question is whether Iran's strike marks an escalation, or is more of a one-off backlash at Israel.
Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies, called the reaction "guarded" as investors await Israel's response.
Israel has said there will be consequences after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles in what Tehran said was a retaliation for the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah.
Classic safe-havens like gold, government bonds and the Swiss franc surged on Tuesday and were holding most of those gains on Wednesday, while oil LCOc1 traded above $75a barrel.
"Geopolitics is impossible to trade and hence keeping a low risk profile would be a prudent strategy," Kumar said.
Past bouts of heightened geopolitical tension, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, resulted in sharp but short-lived market moves during which investors fled risky assets and piled in to havens such as gold and the dollar.
Global stocks edged lower on Wednesday, while government bonds US10YT=RR gave up some gains.
Equities and other risky assets sold off in April, when a previous round of missiles fired by Iran at Israel - the first ever - were shot down with the help of the U.S. military and other allies. Israel responded with airstrikes, but wider escalation was averted and markets recovered those initial losses.
This time, investors' decisions may rest on Israel's response and whether the conflict with Iran escalates.
"It's not just about reacting to headlines, but positioning yourself for both immediate market volatility and long-term impacts," Saxo Bank head of FX strategy and global market strategy Charu Chanana said.
"Geopolitical risks are constant and your portfolio should be ready for them," she said.
Gold XAU= is already up nearly 30% this year, thanks in large part to a decline in the dollar in response to a slowing U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's decision to deliver steep interest-rate cuts to ward off more weakness.
One specific concern for investors is oil prices, which have jumped 5.2% in two days, as the risk of supply disruptions from the Gulf region increases. A more protracted conflict could push up energy prices worldwide.
This, in turn, complicates the job of central bankers, who are now intent on lowering borrowing costs to insulate the global economy as it gradually slows, as inflation has subsided since the punishing highs of 2021.
"The main message from geopolitics is inflation hasn’t gone away," said Trevor Greetham, Royal London Asset Management head of multi asset.
Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction.
The Cboe Volatility Index .VIX, an options-based indicator of demand for protection from market swings, rose on Wednesday, but by just 0.6%, compared with Tuesday's 15% surge to a three-week high of 20.73.
"Although the VIX is edging higher it remains sufficiently just below 20 to suggest that markets - including the crude oil market - do not yet envision an all-out military scenario," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
Either way, trading is likely to remain jittery.
"Markets ... are likely to display an incredibly high sensitivity to incoming geopolitical news flow in the coming hours," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.
Markets spooked https://tmsnrt.rs/4862EMx
FACTBOX-What Iran and Israel would wield in a long-range air war nL1N3LD0TS
TIMELINE-Israel's long history of incursions and invasions in Lebanon nL1N3LD05X
Additional reporting by Naomi Rovnik in London; Suzanne McGee, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Lewis Krauskopf; Writing by Ira Iosebashvili and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis and Alexander Smith
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
