MS prefers European carbon steel over stainless, downgrades Outokumpu
** Morgan Stanley sees better risk-reward in European carbon steel stocks after China's policy pivot, as stainless steel makers may see possible benefits with a lag
** It sees a clearer path to better demand prospects for the ferrous metals, such as iron ore, coking coal and carbon steel, and base metals
** MS points to stainless steel sector's greater exposure to consumer demand, which has a limited chance of meaningful stimulus in the near term, and notes Chinese stainless steel exports have been less of a drag for the sea-borne market
** It sees mixed signals into Q3 results, as Europe's recovery prospects are sluggish and there is increasing evidence of a U.S. slowdown
** It downgrades Outokumpu OUT1V.HE to "equal weight" on weaker earnings momentum, growth capex uncertainties and fading valuation discount to peers
** MS adds Outokumpu, unlike its peers, is purely focused on stainless steel with no meaningful diversification to more defensive earnings pillars, such as speciality alloys
RATING AND PT CHANGES:
COMPANY | RATING | OLD RATING | PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Outokumpu | Equal weight | Overweight | EUR 4.30 | EUR 4.70 |
Acerinox ACX.MC | Overweight | n/a | EUR 13.20 | EUR 13.80 |
Aperam APAM.AS | Equal weight | n/a | EUR 30.00 | EUR 31.00 |
Reporting by Marta Frąckowiak
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