Room for optimism over EU/UK exporters - Barclays
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ROOM FOR OPTIMISM OVER EU/UK EXPORTERS - BARCLAYS
Barclays equity strategists see some relief ahead for EU and UK exporters, but a complex geopolitical backdrop means it won't be smooth sailing.
Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar has boosted the British pound and the euro, which are teetering around two-year highs, a factor helping domestically oriented stocks in the region to outperform even amid lacklustre growth, Barclays says.
"However, in the past week we have seen news flow regarding potentially higher corporate taxes in France and Italy, as both economies struggle with weak fiscal positions," they add.
They think this could disproportionately hit earnings for the most domestically tilted stocks.
"At the same time, if dollar were to stabilise, as discussed above, that could end up providing relief to exporters in Europe."
More China stimulus could help growth too. Tech, chemicals, cap goods, miners, luxury and autos stand out as potential beneficiaries according to Barclays, all export/China tilted sectors.
"It's not going to be smooth sailing though as the likelihood of potential tariffs implementation in the case of Trump second term would be a major headwind to export tilted names," they warn.
Potential escalation in the Middle East and higher oil prices are another risk.
(Lucy Raitano)
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