This is a bad time for FX traders to gamble
Oct 2 (Reuters) -This is a bad time for FX traders to gamble, with a U.S. presidential election looming and significant risk stemming from conflict in the Middle East.
At the very least, traders who are broadly betting against the U.S. currency should consider taking profits, or look to limit losses that could result from a likely increase in demand for the world's reserve currency.
With the U.S. election on November 5th, speculators who are naturally inclined to pare risk at the end of most years, may act much sooner to trim bets, and the closely contested vote gives them more cause to so, as the outcome and its consequences are far from certain.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is probably their bigger concern, however, because there is a chance that the dollar could surge rapidly, turning any profits to losses.
Even if the election doesn't change the outlook for U.S. interest rates or the dollar, and if the geopolitical tensions do ease, then a lot of traders are still likely to book profits or trim losses before the year ends, and because so many are betting that the dollar drops, it's likely to rally.
For more click on FXBUZ
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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