Tuesday data dump: JOLTS, PMI, construction spending
U.S. equity indexes under pressure; Nasdaq off <2%
Tech down most among S&P sector; energy surges
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.4%
Dollar gains; gold up ~1%; crude surges >4%; bitcoin down <2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~3.72%
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TUESDAY DATA DUMP: JOLTS, PMI, CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
A swath of data on Tuesday lent some cred to the notion that the U.S. economy continues to show signs of softening.
First, there were 8.04 million unfilled jobs in August, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) USJOLT=ECI.
That's a 4.3% increase over July, amounts to 330,000 more job openings than analysts expected.
While the number remains above the pre-pandemic "normal," it's also 34% below the metric's record high reached in March 2022.
The report also showed hiring, firing and quits slowed down as well.
The quit rate, often viewed as a gauge of consumer expectations - workers are less likely to walk away from a gig in times of economic uncertainty - decreased to 1.9% of the labor force, from 2.0% the month prior.
Viewed as a package, the JOLTS report shows a slowdown in jobs market churn and an overall dampening in labor conditions, a state of affairs that was certainly on Powell & Co's radar when they implemented the double-scoop 50 bp rate cut last month.
"The August JOLTS report was a mixed bag, with job openings edging higher and hiring declining, which is less of a concern than it would be otherwise since layoffs remain low," says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "The quits rate fell to the lowest since the pandemic, and the decline is consistent with other data showing workers view the labor market less favorably."
There's plenty of additional jobs data on tap this week, culminating in the September employment report on Friday.
Next, U.S. factory activity contracted in September at the same pace it did in October.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing managers' index (PMI) USPMI=ECI repeated the prior month's reading of 47.2, lurking below 50 - the PMI dividing line between contraction and expansion - for its sixth straight month.
"Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty," writes Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
Drilling below the headline, new orders, production and backlog remained in contraction but improved, while employment, inventories, new export orders and imports deteriorated.
The prices paid element - an inflation predictor - slid below 50, in yet another sign of cooling price growth.
Not to be ignored, S&P Global also released its final take on September manufacturing PMI USMPMF=ECI, delivering similar reading of 47.3.
Finally, outlays on U.S. construction projects USTCNS=ECI unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% in August, defying the 0.1% increase projected by economists.
Line-by-line, residential construction spending - burdened by elevated mortgage rates and tighter lending conditions - dropped 0.3% in yet another sign that the housing market stands to benefit from falling interest rates.
Public expenditures grew by 0.3% - the 1.1% increase in highways/streets is an eye-catcher - while sending privately funded projects dropped by 0.2%.
"Construction activity, particularly private non-residential activity and especially single-family home construction ... is declining," says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
"High interest rates matter," Weinberg adds. "Lower policy interest rates may help, but it will take time for that to happen."
(Stephen Culp)
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FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
WALL STREET FALLS SHARPLY AMID MIDEAST TENSIONS, AHEAD OF JOBS DATA - CLICK HERE
AS U.S. STOCK BULLS RUN, CAN ANIMAL SPIRITS KEEP PACE? - CLICK HERE
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF POTENTIAL TAX HIKES ON FRENCH STOCKS - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN BANKS FEEL THE SQUEEZE AS ECONOMY FALTERS - CLICK HERE
ITALY’S FISCAL PLAN IS DOABLE, BUT ONLY UNTIL 2027 - CITI - CLICK HERE
LUXURY DOWN AGAIN, AUTOS STEADY AS Q4 KICKS OFF - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES STEADY, M&A ON THE RADAR - CLICK HERE
MILDER INFLATION SEEN SETTING UP RATE CUTS - CLICK HERE
JOLTS https://reut.rs/3zONHBt
ISM manufacturing PMI https://reut.rs/4emzKd6
Construction spending https://reut.rs/3ZMlQwp
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