U.S. stock futures muted after mixed PPI
U.S. equity index futures little changed
Sep PPI MM < est, YY > est; Ex-food/energy MM in-line with est, YY > est
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
Dollar ~flat; gold up; bitcoin up >2%; crude declines ~1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.10%
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U.S. STOCK FUTURES MUTED AFTER MIXED PPI
U.S. equity index futures are little changed after the release of the latest data on U.S. producer prices. E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are roughly flat, which is where they were just before the numbers came out.
The September headline PPI reading on a month-over-month basis was below the estimate, while on a year-over-year basis it was hotter than expected. The month-over-month ex-food/energy read was in-line with the estimate. The year-over-year ex-food/energy print was above the Reuters Poll:
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the FOMC cuts rates 25 basis points at its November 6-7 policy meeting has ticked up to 85% from 84% just before the data came out. There is now around an 15% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged vs 16% just before the numbers were released.
Looking forward to the December meeting, there is still a strong bias for rates to be in the 4.25%-4.50% area vs the current target rate of 4.75%-5.00%. However, conviction in that outcome has dipped to around 77% from 85% just before the data came out.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is now around 4.10% vs 4.09% just before the data was released. The yield ended at 4.094% on Thursday.
S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs are mixed ahead of the open. Consumer discretionary XLY.P, off about 1%, is posting the biggest decline. Financials XLF.P, up around 0.5%, is the biggest gainer.
The Invesco KBW Bank ETF KBWB.O is quoted up about 1%. This after JP Morgan JPM.N and Wells Fargo WFC.N released quarterly results.
October preliminary U Mich sentiment is due at 1000 EDT. The expectation is for 70.8 vs the prior print of 70.1.
Here is a premarket snapshot from shortly before 0900 EDT (1300 GMT):
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
FRENCH BUDGET: A LOOMING DILEMMA FOR BRUSSELS? - CLICK HERE
HOW THE EURO CAN FALL TO PARITY VERSUS DOLLAR - CLICK HERE
STOXX CALM, SET FOR SMALL WEEKLY GAIN - CLICK HERE
FUTURES POINT TO STEADY START, LOOK THROUGH FRENCH BUDGET - CLICK HERE
MARKETS TURN CAUTIOUS BEFORE UNCERTAIN WEEKEND - CLICK HERE
PPILM10112024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4eZRyKX
premarket10112024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3YhOX9R
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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