USDA raises forecast for massive US corn crop
Adds background of US crop supplies, analyst comment, wheat estimates
By Tom Polansek
CHICAGO, Oct 11 (Reuters) -U.S. farmers produced even more corn than expected this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday, expanding its forecast for the nation's second biggest harvest ever.
USDA trimmed its soybean production forecast in a monthly report, though that crop is still expected to be a record.
Abundant supplies pushed futures prices for both crops to 2020 lows this year, dragging down farmers' incomes after a record corn crop in 2023 and tough global export competition from Brazil.
The United States is the world's largest corn exporter and the No. 2 soybean supplier after Brazil. Corn Cv1 and soybean Sv1 futures traded lower after the report.
USDA predicted farmers will harvest 15.203 billion bushels of corn this autumn, with an average yield of 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa). That was up from its September forecast for 15.186 billion bushels, with a yield of 183.6 bpa.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected small declines to 15.155 billion bushels and 183.4 bpa.
"A big crop getting a little bit bigger," said Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities.
USDA projected U.S. soy output at 4.582 billion bushels with an average yield of 53.1 bpa, compared to its September estimates for production of 4.586 billion bushels with a yield of 53.2 bpa.
Analysts had expected USDA to peg production at 4.579 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.1 bpa.
Globally, end-of-season corn stocks for 2024-25 were projected at 306.52 million metric tons, compared to USDA's forecast for 308.35 million tons a month ago and analysts' estimates for 306.83 million.
USDA put global soybean stocks for 2024-25 at 134.65 million tons, up from 134.58 million in September and analysts' expectations for 134.53 million.
For wheat, USDA reduced its estimate for world 2024-25 production but raised its ending-stocks outlook to 257.72 million tons from 257.22 million last month. Analysts had expected stocks of 256.14 million.
Harsh weather is reducing wheat production in major exporting countries.
Reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago; Additional reporting by Renee Hickman; Editing by Bill Berkrot
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