Australian dollar extends losing streak, kiwi endures rate pain
SYDNEY, Oct 10 (Reuters) -The Australian dollar extended its losing streak on Thursday as the lack of China stimulus news and shifting U.S. rate cut expectations turned against it, while the kiwi nursed heavy losses on the odds of even larger rate cuts.
The Aussie AUD=D3 held at $0.6716, having lost 0.4% overnight in the fifth straight session of declines which have seen it hit as low as $0.6708.It fell 3% from its September peak to hover close to a three-week low, with bears now targetting the 200-day moving average of $0.6627.
The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 bounced 0.1% to $0.6071, after plunging 1.2% overnight to as low as $0.6050, a seven-week trough. It also broke key support at the 200-day moving average of $0.6096 as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday stepped up its policy easing with a half-point move.
Swaps now imply a 13% chance that the RBNZ could even cut by a 75 basis point in November, a reason that the kiwi AUDNZD=R lost 0.8% on the Aussie overnight to the lowest in 2-1/2 months. 0#RBNZWATCH
The near-term fate of both currencies now rests on the U.S. consumer inflation data due later in the day where a hot print would add to the doubt that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all in November.
Futures now imply a small 20% chance the Fed would stay put next month following a strong jobs report.
"An upside surprise in U.S. CPI could force the Fed to doubt its confidence about the path for inflation," said Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com.
"The U.S. dollar is regaining supremacy, in part due to disappointment about stimulus prospects out of China, but mostly because of continued U.S. economic outperformance."
The Aussie - a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan given the country's economic reliance on China - has also been dragged lower by investor disappointment that there has been no major stimulus announcement from Beijing in recent days, which sent prices for iron ore lower.
China's ministry of finance, however, scheduled a press conference for Saturday, keeping hopes of fiscal stimulus alive.
Analysts at HSBC believe the Australian dollar has further to climb, citing the currency's cheap valuation on their models and China's policy support.
"Markets appear to be casting doubt on whether the positive sentiment can be matched by actual economic benefits... We are more optimistic. We believe what matters most for the AUD is not the immediate size or effectiveness of the policy measures, but the 'policy put' co-ordinated across fiscal and monetary authorities," they said in a note to clients.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Michael Perry
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
