Polish c.bank leaves rates unchanged as inflation remains high
WARSAW, Oct 2 (Reuters) -The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with expectations, after inflation accelerated in September and is expected to rise further at the turn of the year.
Inflation in September was 4.9%, well above the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target of 2.5% plus or minus one percentage point.
"CPI is currently almost two times higher than the NBP target. What is more, it is highly probable that inflation in the next 5-6 months will be at an even slightly higher level, above 5.0%," said Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy.
"In such conditions, it would be difficult for the Monetary Policy Council to justify rate cuts."
The Polish MPC has kept interest rates unchanged since October 2023, with the reference rate at 5.75%.
Meanwhile, other central banks in the region are in the process of easing monetary policy - interest rates are falling in Hungary and the Czech Republic, and recently the U.S. Fed and European Central Bank have recently lowered costs of borrowing.
The market is now waiting for the Monetary Policy Council statement following its October meeting, and also - perhaps even more so - for Thursday's press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski.
In September, Glapinski reiterated that the central bank did not expect inflation to return to target before 2026.
He said it could, however, start weighing on monetary easing earlier, with the March 2025 inflation projection being a key moment.
"It will be important for analysts and investors whether there will be further signals regarding March 2025 in today's MPC statement or at tomorrow's conference of the NBP Governor," said Piotr Bielski, director of the economic analysis department of Santander Bank Polska.
"If this were the case, it could solidify market expectations regarding the date of the first rate cut as early as Q1 2025."
Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz and Karol Badohal
Editing by Gareth Jones
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