USD/JPY flirts with bullish yen headwinds increase
Things are looking up for USD/JPY as the underpinnings of the yen's summer rally go wobbly.
First, BOJ Governor Ueda told newly-elected Prime Minister Ishiba that monetary easing will be adjusted carefully and that policy coordination with the government is desirable. The dovish posturing hints at a return to Abenomics and takes rate hikes off the table until at least December.
Second, the Middle East conflict and flagging growth in Europe has investors pivoting toward the greenback as the haven currency of choice.
Third, oil, a key import of Japan, is climbing amid concerns about Middle East supplies and expected demand as global central banks embark on easing.
Finally, an above-forecast ADP print Wednesday suggests the U.S. jobs market remains healthy. The data comes two days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the labor market was holding up. Bets on another jumbo Fed rate cut this year are being trimmed, with less than 75 basis points priced in over the next two meetings,according to LSEG data.
Positioning may further undermine the yen. Weekly CFTC data shows futures accounts turning bullish the Japanese currency in August around 147.00. Though options do not see spot racing higher, a close above its nearby upper Bollinger and Sept. 27 high of 146.495 supports momentum. A close below 145 or soft U.S. payrolls Friday challenges the bullish vibe.
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Yen chart https://tmsnrt.rs/3zKKyCS
(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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