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Nordic banks face continued NII pressure, Nordea remains Jefferies' top pick



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** Jefferies says the operating environment remains challenging for Nordic banks, with continued pressure on net interest income (NII) from lower rates and muted lending growth, especially in Sweden

** It expects sequential NII decline in Q3 for Swedish banks due to lower rates and lack of deposit hedge, and flat to slightly higher NII for other Nordic names

** However, Sweden should see strong recovery in 2025 driven by rate cuts and increasing consumption, it says

** Nordea NDAFI.HE remains Jefferies' only "buy" recommendation in the sector

** "Nordea see demand at its weakest now and expect the Swedish economy to pick up in 2H24," Jefferies notes

** It expects buyback announcements of SEK 2.5 bln ($241 mln) from SEB SEBa.ST and NOK 3.5 bln ($329 mln) from DNB DNB.OL


COMPANY

RATING

PT

OLD PT

Nordea

Buy

EUR 12.6

EUR 12.4

DNB

Hold

NOK 213

NOK 215

Danske Bank DANSKE.CO

Hold

NOK 230

NOK 232

Swedbank SWEDa.ST

Hold

SEK 210

SEK 212

Handelsbanken SHBa.ST

Underperform

SEK 97

n/a

SEB

Underperform

SEK 140

n/a

($1 = 10.3628 Swedish crowns)

($1 = 10.6388 Norwegian crowns)




Reporting by Anna Chaberska

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