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市场新闻

Reuters - 14小时前

If Swiss franc is too positive, SNB may go negative

BUZZ-COMMENT-If Swiss franc is too positive, SNB may go negative Oct 2 (Reuters) - The probability of the Swiss National Bank cutting interest rates below zero next year will increase if EUR/CHF slides through 0.9200 for the first time since the "Frankenshock" of January 2015. A stronger franc could exert further downward pressure on Swiss consumer price inflation, which slowed to 1.1% year-on-year in August and is forecast to remain at that level when September's print is revealed on Thursday a
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Reuters - 1天前

FX options wrap - Fear gauges swing toward USD gains

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Fear gauges swing toward USD gains FX volatility measures are trading higher amid the latest USD recovery and remain alert for additional gains. Implied volatility was already higher to recognise the increased realised volatility risk from Friday's impending U.S. jobs data , with Tuesday's USD gains adding to nerves and prompting additional demand.
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Reuters - 2天前

FX fear gauges show a greater risk of EUR/USD losses

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX fear gauges show a greater risk of EUR/USD losses Oct 1 (Reuters) - EUR/USD has been pinned to the 1.11's since trading at a new 13-month high above 1.1200 in late August, but the directional FX risk premium in FX option markets shows a greater risk of EUR/USD setbacks than of extended gains. Risk reversals are options that benefit from FX volatility in a particular direction and will consequently demand a volatility risk premium for related strikes.
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Reuters - 2天前

FX options wrap: Volatility gains, value, EUR call, US election

REFILE-BUZZ-FX options wrap: Volatility gains, value, EUR call, US election Adds chart Sub 1-month expiry FX option implied volatility has reached new recent highs to reflect the impending FX risk from Fed speakers and U.S. data, which culminates with Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Implied volatility setbacks are likely to remain limited ahead of the NFP, with benchmark 1-month options soon to reflect the perceived U.S.
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Reuters - 5天前

FX options wrap - JPY reversal, NFP risk, EUR struggle, GBP put

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY reversal, NFP risk, EUR struggle, GBP put The JPY reversed higher after Sanae Takaichi, a less BoJ-friendly LDP leadership and future PM contender, lost the election to Shigeru Ishiba, who is now set to become Japan's next Prime Minister. USD/JPY and its implied volatility fell on the JPY relief rally as topside hedges were pared.
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Reuters - 6天前

Larger FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Larger FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Sept 27 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action, adding to nearby support/resistance, and there are plenty on Friday and for the week ahead. The biggest EUR/USD strikes are on Monday at 1.1200 on 1.2 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1080-85 on 1.6 billion euros and 1.1100 on 1.4 billion euros and Wednesday at 1.1025 on 2.2 billion euros, 1.1100 on 1.4 billion euros,
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Reuters - 6天前

FX options wrap - EUR topside, U.S. PCE risk, LDP JPY warning

BUZZ-FX options wrap - EUR topside, U.S. PCE risk, LDP JPY warning Sept 26 (Reuters) - There was no significant change to option implied volatility on Thursday, which remains just above levels seen at the start of the week. Overnight CHF-related implied volatility highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Thursday's SNB policy announcement , but a lesser 25bps cut helped to limit the FX reaction.
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Reuters - 1周前

USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings Repeats with no changes Sept 25 (Reuters) - Overnight/next day FX options now expire after Thursday's Swiss National Bank policy announcement and a substantial jump in the premium of those related to the Swiss Franc warn of a significant increase in its volatility. FX volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a substitute.
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Reuters - 1周前

USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings Repeats with no changes Sept 25 (Reuters) - Overnight/next day FX options now expire after Thursday's Swiss National Bank policy announcement and a substantial jump in the premium of those related to the Swiss Franc warn of a significant increase in its volatility. FX volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a substitute.
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Reuters - 1周前

FX options wrap - USD put, EUR value, GBP cap, JPY fear, SNB

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD put, EUR value, GBP cap, JPY fear, SNB A reluctance to build any significant short USD positions via USD put options could be highlighting a lack of conviction about deeper USD losses. EUR/USD is a case in point - testing above late August highs at 1.1201, but related implied volatility is only marginally higher and with limited demand or additional premium for topside strikes .
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Reuters - 1周前

USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings

BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/CHF options flag SNB induced volatility warnings Sept 25 (Reuters) - Overnight/next day FX options now expire after Thursday's Swiss National Bank policy announcement and a substantial jump in the premium of those related to the Swiss Franc warn of a significant increase in its volatility. FX volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a substitute.
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Reuters - 1周前

FX options wrap - Risk, EUR 1.10, GBP barrier, U.S. Election

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Risk, EUR 1.10, GBP barrier, U.S. Election FX option implied volatility is mostly heavy, especially with the latest China stimulus package supporting risk. The U.S. election is now only six weeks away, but dealers point out a lack of option end-user demand for FX volatility protection when compared with the same period before the 2020 election.
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Reuters - 1周前

Explainer-The critical importance of FX option strike expiries

BUZZ-Explainer-The critical importance of FX option strike expiries Sept 24 (Reuters) - While it is not an exact science, larger impending FX option strikes can often have an effect on the FX spot market as their expiries draw closer. Here's why. While there are many types of traders and investors influencing the FX markets, perhaps the most important when it comes to options are the many institutions that supply and manage liquidity.
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Reuters - 1周前

Swiss franc bears hoping SNB follows Fed's path

BUZZ-COMMENT-Swiss franc bears hoping SNB follows Fed's path Sept 24 (Reuters) - Franc bears hope the Swiss National Bank takes a leaf out of the Federal Reserve's book and cuts interest rates by 50 basis points this week, as this might inflate EUR/CHF towards 0.96. Markets currently see a 49% chance of the SNB opting for a half-point rate reduction on Thursday, with a third consecutive 25 bps cut to 1.0% fully priced.
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Reuters - 1周前

FX options wrap - CNH puts, RBA risk, GBP bulls, EUR outlook

BUZZ-FX options wrap - CNH puts, RBA risk, GBP bulls, EUR outlook FX option implied volatility is lower since the 50bps U.S. rate cut and expectations of more easing and a soft landing, which should limit the FX volatility potential before the U.S. election. USD/CNH risk premiums have fallen over recent months and Goldman Sachs notes a more favourable reward versus risk for owning certain topside strike options to benefit/hedge the risk of trade tariffs if Donald Trump wins the Nov.
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Reuters - 1周前

Stand-out FX option strike expiries this week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries this week Sept 23 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action, adding to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes expiring this week. The largest EUR/USD strikes are on Monday at 1.1150 on 1.9 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1120-25 on 3.5 billion euros and Wednesday at 1.1100 on 913 million euros and 1.1125-30 on 2.6 billion euros.
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Reuters - 3周前

FX options wrap - FX risks fade amid central bank cuts

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX risks fade amid central bank cuts G10 FX option implied volatility has fallen quite sharply since the U.S. NFP and CPI data removed much of the uncertainty about the U.S. rate path, which in turn, has aided a broader risk recovery. Benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility consequently trades new post data lows . However, o ne-week expiry options now include the U.S.
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Reuters - 3周前

US dollar mixed after inflation report supports smaller Fed rate cut

FOREX-US dollar mixed after inflation report supports smaller Fed rate cut US core inflation rises 0.3% in August US dollar hits three-week high versus Swiss franc Dollar falls to lowest level since late December Fed funds futures lower odds of 50-basis-point cut this month Updates as of 3:27 p.m. ET/1927 GMT By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Chibuike Oguh NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 3周前

FX options wrap - ECB, EUR direction, 13 billion, JPY 140, value

BUZZ-FX options wrap - ECB, EUR direction, 13 billion, JPY 140, value Initially tame U.S. CPI FX volatility risk premium was marginally higher before Wednesday's slightly softer than expected data, which makes a 25bpts U.S. rate cut more likely than 50bps next week. The pre data premium rise in USD/JPY came after more JPY strength took the pair closer to 140.00 in Asia , with other dates higher, too.
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Reuters - 3周前

The EUR/USD directional bias according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT- The EUR/USD directional bias according to FX options Sept 11 (Reuters) - FX options thrive on FX volatility and rapid directional moves and, because they are forward looking, their price action can offer clues for the near-term outlook. Implied volatility serves as a proxy for the unknown but crucial element in option premiums: realized FX volatility.
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