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EURUSD

XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 11小时前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bounces off short-term uptrend line

EURUSD's double top pattern continuesRSI tries to move upBut stochastic eases towards oversold areaEURUSD is resting near the short-term uptrend line around the 1.1070 support level after the aggressive selling interest from the 1.1200-1.1215 resistance region. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is heading south towards the oversold zone; h
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前Neutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks

ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecastsEmployment subindex erases the August improvementStocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollarThe ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck bel
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Quick Brief – Eurozone CPI drops below 2%, cementing October cut as euro slips

Eurozone inflation falls below ECB’s 2% targetUnderlying inflation gauges also declineEuro tests $1.11 as October rate cut looks almost certainInflation in the euro area has hit the lowest since June 2021, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.2% in August to 1.8% y/y in September. The two core measures of CPI that exclude volatile items eased marginally to 2.7% y/y.The euro came under fresh selling pressure on the back of the data, but managed to find support at the $1.11 level as the fl
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar gets a boost from Fed’s Powell but will the move last?

Fed’s Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cutDollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reactionEurozone CPI could open the door to a stronger October rate cutYen suffering continues, late-October general election is calledPowell favours measured stepsWith the world closely following the developments in the Middle East and, more specifically the start of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, Fed Chairman Powell chipped in the discussion about the size of th
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD turns neutral amid double-top formation

EURUSD holds above 20-day SMA but bias turns neutralBulls still have a chance as field of support levels lies beneathBut double-top formation hard to ignoreEURUSD has retreated from last week’s 14-month high of 1.1213, erasing the short-term bullish bias. But the pair is so far managing to hold above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1108.The momentum indicators underscore the neutral picture in the near term as the RSI appears to be flatlining just above the 50 level, while the
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Quick Brief – German CPI eases further

Preliminary German CPI drops to 1.6% yoy changeThe October ECB rate cut is almost a done dealEuro/dollar in the green again today The German preliminary inflation report for September produced a downside surprise by printing at 1.6%, against expectations for a 1.7% figure, following the 1.9% yoy increase recorded in August. The respective German states’ prints led by the North-Rhine Westphalia region, announced earlier today, somewhat prepared the market for this weaker CPI print.Following Fr
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharplyEurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup lossesNFP report --> USDJPYThis week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Equities are on autopilot but cannot help the dollar

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cutDollar continues to suffer but euro’s strength is perplexingPositive impact of China’s measures gradually fadesGold and oil diverge despite Middle East developmentsIs the Fed preparing for another 50bps cut? The markets seem to have settled down after last week’s big events with equities rallying, the US dollar underperforming and gold climbing regardless of the newsflow.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD retests 1.1200 critical level

Will EURUSD break the double bottom to the upside?Strong support at 1.1100Stochastic and RSI look quite positiveEURUSD is continuing the upside rally near the 13-month high of 1.1200, remaining well above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). A successful break to the upside of the double top pattern could confirm the upside tendency.Technically,
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD still trades above 1.1100

·       EURUSD remains beneath the double top pattern·       Technical oscillator lose momentumEURUSD is still developing above the 1.1100 round number and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) in the short-term view. The double top around 1.1180-1.1200 seems to be a tough resistance obstacle for the bulls.A potential rally above the aforementioned zone may drive the market until the July 2023 resistance of 1.1275. More aggressive increases could send the bulls towards the Februar
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Daily Comment – China’s stimulus blitz supports positive equities sentiment

Dollar tries to recover as Fedspeak favors further cuts China announces new measures, positive initial market reaction Aussie benefits from another hawkish RBA meeting Gold, oil and pound rallies continue   Debate for the next Fed cut intensifies US stocks remain in a positive mood as Fed speakers continue to advocate for further rate cuts, despite the fact that the US data confirm the strength of the US economy.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Will core PCE inflation corroborate bets for another double Fed cut? – Preview

Fed cuts by 50bps, sees another 50bps by December Investors turn more dovish, which implies upside risks Focus turns to PCE inflation due out on Friday at 12:30 GMT   Some investors expect a back-to-back 50bps cut The Fed decided to begin this easing cycle with a double 50bps rate cut at last week’s decision, with the new dot plot pointing to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024. At the press conference following the decision, Fed Chair Powell noted that the econ
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