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USDJPY

XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 14小时前Neutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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XM市场研究 - 14小时前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY outlook remains gloomy

USDJPY holds below key resistance levels as October’s session startsTechnical signals cannot warrant a bullish trend reversalUSDJPY had a lackluster beginning to October, with a neutral close around its 20-day EMA and previously a rejection near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023-2024 upleg at 144.50.Currently, the pair is attempting to reach the 144.50 territory again, but there may be more hurdles to overcome.
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XM市场研究 - 1天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY's range-trading might end this week

USDJPY is in the green today as dollar shows signs of lifeMarket participants are preparing for a crucial weekMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stageUSDJPY is edging slightly higher today, after yesterday's sizeable green candle, as dollar bulls are showing signs of life following a rather bearish session on Friday. The snap elections called by the newly installed prime minister Ishiba and the suggestion by Fed Chairman Powell that the next rate cut could be to the tune of 25bps h
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar gets a boost from Fed’s Powell but will the move last?

Fed’s Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cutDollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reactionEurozone CPI could open the door to a stronger October rate cutYen suffering continues, late-October general election is calledPowell favours measured stepsWith the world closely following the developments in the Middle East and, more specifically the start of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, Fed Chairman Powell chipped in the discussion about the size of th
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharplyEurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup lossesNFP report --> USDJPYThis week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY plummets after hitting 50-day SMA

USDJPY falls back below downtrend lineMomentum oscillators shift southUSDJPY had a bullish start today, meeting the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.20 but returning quickly to the downside. The price fell back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish move from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the short-term descending trend line.From a technical perspective, the RSI is sloping down from the 50 level, while the stochastic posted a bearish crossover within its%K
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, GBPUSD, Gold

Gold follows bullish pattern; looks for fresh buying above 2,650  GBPUSD comes under pressure after 2½-year high; downside pressure may persistUSDJPY makes progress but is not out of the woods
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with short-term diagonal line

USDJPY tries to surpass the 23.6% FibonacciMACD and RSI gain momentumUSDJPY is challenging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the very short-term downtrend line, creating a bullish correction from the 14-month low of 139.56.The technical oscillators are currently mirroring the market's latest upside movement.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Stocks’ positive reaction might continue until the second Fed rate cut

The Fed announced its first rate cut with a relatively balanced rhetoric History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Week Ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation September flash PMIs to do the rounds; spotlight on euro area SNB to keep trimming as strong franc bites The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be the final major central bank to announce its policy decision in September.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Markets digest Fed decision; BoE and BoJ stand pat

Dollar tumbles on bets of more aggressive Fed rate cuts BoE keeps rates steady, reiterating caution about future cuts BoJ stands pat, Ueda says more rate hikes are coming S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs Fed outcome allows risk-on trading The dollar tumbled against all but two of its major counterparts on Thursday, with the main gainers being the risk-linked currencies, the aussie and the kiwi.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Quick Brief – BoJ stands pat

BoJ holds rates steady but open to more rate hikes Yen benefits from upbeat policy statement The Bank of Japan unanimously held rates unchanged at today’s meeting, fully confirming market expectations. However, the statement on monetary policy kept the door open to further tightening by stating that the BoJ expects a gradual increase in underlying inflation with the medium- and long-term inflation expectations also seen rising.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates into two quarter-point cuts at each of the remain
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