• Bitcoin stabilizes above $60,000 as softness in greenback offers relief

• But the technical structure of lower highs and lows remains in place

• Regulatory woes re-emerge as markets await approval of Ethereum ETFs

 

Bitcoin slide pauses

The flagship cryptocurrency has come under significant selling pressure following the successful completion of the fourth halving event on April 19, underscoring investors' belief that the impact of the event had been already baked into Bitcoin’s price. Therefore, with idiosyncratic risks out of the way, the fate of cryptocurrencies mostly lies on the macroeconomic backdrop moving forward.

Before the latest NFP and jobless claims reports, a series of stronger-than-expected inflation prints had pushed back against interest rate cut expectations, inflicting severe damage on risk-sensitive assets. Nevertheless, the emerging signs of weakness in the US jobs market have brought interest rate reductions back on the table. On that note, cryptocurrencies could benefit from both lower rates and a softer US dollar.

Another interesting theme is the weakening correlation between digital assets and stocks. Most would expect that in the absence of sector-specific developments in the crypto space this correlation would have strengthened, but so far cryptocurrencies have failed to capitalise on the latest stock market rebound, which is mainly driven by the upbeat earnings season.

Regulatory clouds return

On Tuesday, news emerged that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to sue Robinhood’s crypto unit as the regulatory crackdown in the sector continues. The SEC has taken a harsh stance regarding exchanges that provide tokens that it believes should be treated as securities in its attempt to regulate the sector, especially after the introduction of spot ETFs.

Cryptocurrencies lost some ground on the back of those developments as markets are now pricing in a smaller probability of an upcoming approval of spot-Ethereum ETFs by the SEC. Undoubtedly, the crypto space requires a solid and transparent regulatory framework to avoid another wave of scandals and frauds like we saw in the 2022-2023 era, let alone its volatile nature. Last week, Bitcoin’s price temporarily entered a technical bear market from its March record highs, highlighting once again that there is still long till the crypto industry becomes a mature market.

Stuck in a profound short-term downtrend

BTCUSD reversed lower following its second unsuccessful attempt to conquer the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) before recouping some losses. Moreover, the price remains stuck beneath a downward sloping trendline that connects a series of lower highs since its March peak, generating a clear structure of lower highs and lower lows. 

Should the latest uptick extend, the price may test the recent rejection region of $65,500, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Even higher, the April resistance of $67,270 could come under scrutiny.

Alternatively, if the bears re-emerge and push the price lower, the March-April support of $59,400 could act as the first line of defence. In case of a downside violation there is no prominent support until the recent two-month low of $56,483.