• Bitcoin posts 2-month low on expectations of slower rate cuts

• But cryptos breathe a sigh of relief after dovish Fed meeting

• The launch of Hong Kong listed spot ETFs disappoints

 

Bitcoin gains but lacks bullish long-term catalysts

The king of cryptos has come under selling pressures lately, especially following the successful completion of the fourth halving event on April 19. As both the launch of spot-Bitcoin ETFs and halving event are now behind us, it seems that there is nothing positive left for crypto investors to price in.

Therefore, Bitcoin’s fate lies on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, where the recurring upside surprises in inflation data have shifted expectations from six rate cuts in the beginning of the year to a little less than two at the moment of writing. Earlier in the week, market pricing implied even less basis points worth of rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, but Wednesday’s dovish FOMC meeting put the probability of at least one 25 basis point cut back on the table.

This repricing was enough to help Bitcoin recoup some losses, given that it had fallen to a fresh two-month low of $56,483 ahead of the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also benefited from the latest advance in the stock market driven by Apple’s announcement of a massive share buyback program.

On Friday, Bitcoin bulls have been giving a tough battle to recapture the crucial $60,000 psychological mark and a failure to do so could accelerate the recent slide.

Hong Kong listed ETFs disappoint

On Tuesday, six spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs made their debut in Hong Kong amid heightened anticipation of a renewed wave of demand from Asian investors. However, the launch of those vehicles proved to be unsuccessful as they did not manage to accumulate the expected inflows.

One day later, BlackRock reported its first outflow since the initiation of its spot Bitcoin ETF, corroborating that demand for such investment vehicles has been fading. Moving forward, markets are focused on the approval of spot-Ethereum ETFs as it is considered to be the next growth driver.

Technical levels to watch

BTCUSD has come under significant selling pressure after its rejection at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Although the price posted a fresh two-month low of $56,483, it managed to recoup some losses on the back of the dovish FOMC meeting.Should the rebound extend above the $60,000 psychological mark, the price may test $64,500, a region that acted both as support and resistance in recent months. Even higher, the April resistance of $67,270 could come under scrutiny.

Alternatively, if the bears re-emerge and push the price lower, initial support could be found at the recent two-month low of $56,483. In case of a downside violation there is no prominent support until the February resistance zone of $52,850.