• Halving proves to be a non-event for Bitcoin

• Expectations of fewer rate cuts weigh on cryptos

• Hong Kong ETFs might improve demand outlook

Successful halving but no fireworks

Last week, the much-anticipated halving event took place but as most had expected the market reaction was relatively muted. In a nutshell, it seems that the post-halving boost had already been baked in the price, given Bitcoin’s exponential rally from around $15,000 to fresh all-time highs within less than two years.

At the same time, Bitcoin did not also come under selling pressure due to a buy-the-rumor sell-the-news type of reaction as was the case with the introduction of spot-Bitcoin ETFs. Such an outcome corroborates the view that the crypto industry is slowly entering a more mature phase, while Bitcoin is transitioning from a short-term speculative, to a long-term buy and hold asset.

However, the fourth Bitcoin halving had some negative implications on miners, whose business became far less profitable because of the reduced rewards per mined block. Although there have not been any disruptions in Bitcoin’s network so far, this could occur moving forward if some miners fail to stay afloat.

Focus turns on macroeconomic front and Hong Kong

Considering that the effects of both the spot-Bitcoin ETFs and halving are now fully priced in for Bitcoin, its upcoming moves will be largely directed by shifts in the macroeconomic backdrop. In that sense, the recurring upside surprises in US inflation data have triggered bets of a slower rate cut path for the Fed, dampening demand for risk sensitive assets.

Right now, it seems that the only factor that could outweigh the macro woes is a renewed wave of demand. On that note, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot-ETFs approved by Hong Kong regulators are set to begin trading on April 30. Such investment vehicles could attract Chinese funds currently held in Hong Kong as China has essentially banned domestic crypto trading.

Technical levels to watch

BTCUSD had been in a slow but steady recovery after the completion of the halving event on April 19, erasing a significant part of its pre-event slump. However, the rebound quickly faltered and the price reversed lower following its inability to conquer the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

If the recent retreat extends, the March support of $62,500 might curb initial downside attempts. Sliding beneath that floor, the price could challenge the recent double bottom region around $59,313.

On the flipside, bullish actions could propel the price higher towards the recent resistance of $67,270, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Even higher, the bulls might attack $69,000, a level that acted both as support and resistance in recent months.