• Tesla reverses higher before coming under pressure again

• Key hurdles on the upside yet to be cleared

Tesla stock rebounded off the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) following the retreat from the two-month high of 198.62. But further gains are in doubt as the price is heading lower today.

The short-term picture is mixed according to the momentum indicators. The stochastic oscillator has bounced sharply off from oversold levels, but the RSI is fluctuating around the 50 neutral level.

If the weak positive momentum deteriorates further and the bears regain control, there’s likely to be strong support in the 170.00 area where the 20-day SMA is about to record a bullish cross with the 50-day SMA.

A break below 170.00 would bring the 152.00 level into range, which acted as support back in April 2023. Steeper losses would turn the focus on the long-term ascending trendline.

However, if the bulls persist and the stock resumes its recovery, there’s bound to be stiff resistance again near the descending trendline, which is being closely tracked by the 100-day SMA. A successful break above it would strengthen the bullish forces, with the next resistance probably coming from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2023-April 2024 downtrend at 199.97. Higher up, the 200-day SMA is towering over in the 215.00 region.

Summing up, Tesla stock still has a chance of resuming its rebound. But the bearish medium-term outlook is unlikely to turn positive until the 200-day SMA is claimed, while a drop below the 20-day SMA would increase the short-term bearish risks.