Strong jobs report propels dollar to best week since 2022
Dollar hits seven-week high
Jobs report cuts bets for another big Fed rate cut
Safe-haven demand also boosts dollar
Updated at 1400 EDT
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The dollar jumped to a seven-week high on Friday and was on track to post its best week since September 2022 after a surprisingly strong jobs report for September led traders to cut bets that the Federal Reserve will make further 50-basis-point rate cuts.
The greenback was also set for its best weekly percentage performance against the Japanese yen since 2009 as traders adjusting for a less dovish Fed and a more dovish Bank of Japan sparked a rapid repricing in the currency pair.
U.S. nonfarmpayrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month, beating the 140,000 new jobs thateconomists polled by Reuters had anticipated.
The unemployment rate also unexpectedly slipped, to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.
It is a "blockbuster payrolls report by any measure. I think a no-landing scenario for the U.S. economy has suddenly become far more plausible," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
"The expectationnow would be for a Federal Reserve that treads far more cautiously in easing policy,” Schamotta said.
Improving economic data and more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, whenhe pushed back against expectations of continuing hefty rate cuts, led traders to reduce bets on a 50-basis-point reduction at the Fed's next meeting, on Nov. 6-7.
Those odds were completely wiped out afterFriday's data. Traders are now pricing in no chance of a 50-basis-pointrate cut, down from around 31% earlier on Friday and 53% a week ago, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows. A 25-basis-point reduction is seen as almost certain, with traders also seeing a small chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.
Bank of America expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points per meeting through March 2025, followed by reductions of 25 basis points each quarter until the end of 2025, BofA US economist Aditya Bhave said in a report on Friday.
"The data flow since the Fed's decision to cut by 50bp in September has been remarkably positive," he said, calling Friday's report "A-plus."
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the data "superb" and said more labor market data along those lines would boost his confidence the economy is at full employment with low inflation.
The dollar index =USD reached 102.69, the highest level sinceAug. 16, and wason track for its best weekly percentage gain since September 2022.
The euro EUR=EBS slipped to $1.09515, the lowest since Aug. 15.
The dollar gained to 149.02 yen JPY=EBS, the highest since Aug. 16.
New Japanese premier Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets this week when he said the economy was not ready for further rate hikes, an apparent about-face from his previous support for the Bank of Japan's unwinding decades of extreme monetary stimulus.
The dollar has also been boosted this week by safe-haven demand on concerns about widening conflict in the Middle East.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that Iran and its regional allies will not back down. Iran raised the stakes when it fired missiles at Israel on Tuesday, partly in retaliation for Israel's killing of Hezbollah secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Sterling GBP=D3 fell as low as$1.3070, the lowest level sinceSept. 12.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said on Friday the British central bank should move only gradually with cutting interest rates, a day after the pound slumped 1% after Governor Andrew Bailey said the BoE could move more aggressively to lower rates.
In cryptocurrencies bitcoin BTC= rose 1.95%to $61,958.
Monthly change in US jobs https://reut.rs/3zKkR5n
Reporting by Karen Brettell; additional reporting by Medha Singh and Ankur Banerjee; editing by Mark Heinrich, Susan Fenton and Leslie Adler
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
